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What’s the background?
In recent weeks we have seen a number of reports in the media saying that Trinidad and Tobago’s oil and gas reserves are already declining and ten years from now that decline is likely to accelerate. This is stimulating a great deal more thought about economic transition. Whilst there may still be some oil and gas fields around T&T that have not yet been discovered, their size and the economics of developing and managing them are uncertain. Such uncertainty is not the sort of foundation that the future of any country and economy should be based on.
What are the alternatives?
Since 2005 NIHERST has done a great deal of work with key stakeholder groups to identify areas which could provide a much stronger foundation for the future of T&T in non oil and gas sectors. But their development needs to be within a long term context that is far more defined than Vision 2020 ever was.
How might such a long-term context be defined?
Looking at a preferred ‘destination’ for T&T ten years from now, it might look as follows:
- The oil and gas sector has now declined to less than 15% of GDP.
- Fashion, value-added ‘factor X’ products, renewable energy, ICTs, health and wellness, niche tourism and ‘education as a business’ now contribute 50% to GDP and all add at least 400% in value over basic commodity values.
- Everyone has access to high speed broadband (100 Mb/sec minimum).
- 35% of all business is now international e-commerce driven.
- Education for one (customised to individual needs and aspirations) is now mainstream.
- 95% of those aged 25 years and under are totally literate and computer-competent.
- 80% of R&D funding is allocated by an independent body to those projects which do the most to move the country towards its preferred destination. Anyone can bid for funding, not just traditional R&D organisations.
- 95% of the population has 7/24/365 access to clean water supplies.
What’s needed to achieve this?
The development of a consensus and national growth and innovation system which ensures that the public, private and NGO sectors are all aligned towards a common preferred future ‘destination’, as are communities and individuals. If this part of the process is not achieved, then movement towards the ‘destination’ goals will be almost impossible to realise. There is also a need for accountability. Without accountability there is no ownership and commitment to the measures that need to be enacted to move towards the preferred ‘destination’.
What might this mean for T&T?
There has been a lot of talk about the need to diversify the economy and create employment opportunities that offer better rewards and stimulating challenges. However, the country still has an unhealthy reliance on a ‘dying’ industry - oil and gas. If we can move towards a ‘destination’ that looks something like that described above, the future will be bright and all the investment going into education today is likely to contribute more towards the future of this country instead of somewhere else in the world because there will be more reasons for young people to want to stay.
Useful link:An interesting set of civil society scenarios
Key question: What can you do to help T&T move towards an exciting future ‘destination’?
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