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What’s happening?
There is more innovation and technological development occurring in the new energy and energy efficiency areas than in old energy - which is a powerful indicator of how the future of the energy sector is likely to shape up. Here are some recent indicators that support this view.
One trillion dollars plus
According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, since 2004 over US$ 1 trillion has been invested into renewable energy, energy efficiency and smart energy technologies. In 2004, just US$ 52 billion was invested. In 2010 the figure had risen to US$ 243 billion. That equates to a 29% annual growth rate. This strong growth trend is expected to continue in 2011. Bloomberg says that, ‘the trillionth dollar milestone shows that the world is not waiting for a deal on climate to start turning the super-tanker away from fossil fuels’. During the 2000 - 2010 decade, the USA has been the biggest investor into clean energy followed by China and then Spain. Brazil, Germany and the UK were in places 4 - 6 internationally.
A 100% renewable energy future for Germany?
The Fraunhofer Institute has just released a study entitled ‘Vision for a 100% Renewable Energy System’. It demonstrates how the country would be able to achieve ‘reliable, cost-effective and robust energy supplies’ totally from renewable sources by 2050. The proposition combines renewable energy with an aggressive shift towards more energy-efficient technologies. There would be an up-front cost needed to support the transition process. If it was implemented the transitional costs would rise to a maximum investment of €17 billion in 2015 (equivalent to 8% of the country’s total annual energy expenditure). However, after that year costs would fall ‘dramatically’ and cost savings between the years of 2010 and 2050 totaling about €730 billion could be realized in the electricity and heating sectors alone. The vision also envisages the elimination of all fossil fuel powered vehicles!
Is that realistic?
There are many indicators that suggest this could well be realistic. Following are three indicators that are worth noting:
- In the US there are 4,448 charging stations for electric vehicles (currently around 16,500 EVs are on the road - but numbers are expected to increase fast) and 2,468 pump stations for E85 (15% ethanol) fuel to service the 7.6 million vehicles that can use this fuel. EV’s are increasingly being favoured as a transport option for the future. Biofuels are much less favoured.
- APT Technologies has developed an EV charger that will fully charge two vehicles at a time in just 15 minutes (compared to 2 - 3 hours for traditional EV chargers).
- A French company, Quimperle, is reported to have developed a boat with a 500 HP supercharged engine which is said by the makers to be powered solely by hydrogen that is ‘harvested’ by an on-board generator from the sea-water through which the boat is traveling. Other hydrogen-powered boats have been developed in France e.g. the RM 1200.
What does this mean for T&T?
These are just a few examples which indicate that the shift towards a new energy future is happening at an accelerating pace. Every time someone throws up a reason why renewable options will ‘never be viable’ - e.g. electric or hydrogen fuel powered vehicles - a technology company comes up with a new solution that challenges that reasoning. A new energy future is going to come much faster than most expect and oil and gas is likely to wane in importance. The Inter-American Development Bank recognizes this growth trend and recently announced that it was allocating US$ 30 million to promote the development of ‘green energy’ in the Latin American and Caribbean regions.
Useful links:US$ 1 trillion German changeover H-powered boat IADB investment
What do you think? Should T&T be transitioning more rapidly towards a renewable energy future? There is a real danger it will become a laggard in the international race to build a sustainable future if it doesn’t.
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